National Hurricane Center Advisory 16 position and best forecast for Beryl. July 2, 2024 at 11AM AST. Source: NOAA/NHC.
Impact to Windward Islands
Significant damage has been reported throughout the Grenadines, Grenada (particularly Carriacou and Petite Martinique), Barbados, and Tobago. In a press conference, Grenada prime minister Dickon Mitchell quoted “widespread reports of destruction and devastation in Carriacou and Petite Martinique,” going on to say, “in half an hour, Carriacou was flattened.” Extensive storm surge and significant building damage, including roof loss, has been reported across impacted islands, and no electricity is present across many. Officials estimate nearly 90 percent of homes damaged or destroyed on Union Island of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
Forecast
Hurricane Beryl has tapped into the anomalously water waters in the eastern Caribbean and has intensified to the season’s first Category 5 storm and the earliest Category 5 storm on record. It is expected to bring hurricane force winds and damaging storm surge to Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands as it bypasses on Thursday. There is still a significant amount of uncertainty in the forecast for both the track and intensity of Hurricane Beryl after it passes further into the Caribbean. Forecast models generally agree that Beryl will weaken before making landfall in the Yucatan as a hurricane by Friday. However, the forecasted intensity is uncertain due to interaction with terrain in Jamaica, increasing vertical wind shear, dry air intrusion, while still benefitting from the availability of warm water as a source of fuel. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts that Beryl will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm, and there is a possibility of impacts to Texas as the high pressure system steering the storm westward begins to lift, allowing for a northward storm motion.
ECMWF Ensemble forecast showing considerable uncertainty in the potential track and intensity for Hurricane Beryl for the next 120 hours, with a possible turn toward Texas. Source: Weathernerds.org.
Category 4 and 5 hurricanes to pass within a 50 nm of Jamaica since 1842. Source: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks.
Peril Advisory will continue to monitor Hurricane Beryl. The next report will be issued after an initial assessment of any damages across Jamaica and forecast clarity for the Yucatán Peninsula and further progression. We currently anticipate the next report to be distributed late week or over the weekend.
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