National Hurricane Centre Advisory 12 position and best forecast for Beryl. July 1st, 2024 at 9am AST. Source: NOAA/NHC
After forming just a few days ago in the Central Tropical Atlantic, Beryl strengthened quickly, reaching major hurricane strength on Sunday, June 30. While Beryl temporarily lost strength overnight into Monday, it has since restrengthened to category 4 status and is approaching the Windward Islands. Beryl’s intensification was a function of an extremely favorable environment with minimal wind shear and well above average sea surface temperatures.
Life-threatening impacts are expected in the Grenadine Islands and Carriacou Island as Beryl makes landfall, including potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the core of Beryl will make landfall. Elevated locations are susceptible to wind speeds even greater than surface winds. Storm surge of 6 to 9 feet is forecast where the eye of Beryl makes landfall, and localized flash flooding can be expected with 3 to 6 inches of rainfall expected through the afternoon.
No other category 4 hurricane has tracked within 100 miles of Beryl’s location as of Monday morning. Category 3 Ivan in September of 2004 was the only other major hurricane to do so; the islands being impacted by Beryl have never experienced a hurricane of this strength before.
Most likely arrival time (lines) and probability of tropical storm force winds (shaded). Source: NOAA/NHC.
Tropical storm and hurricane tracks that have passed within 100nm of Grenada since 1842. Source: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks
Beryl is the first hurricane in history to become a Category 4 storm in the month of June and is the strongest Caribbean hurricane on record this early in the calendar year. The third named storm of the year – Chris – formed on June 30 off the coast of Mexico and has since made landfall. The average for the third named Atlantic storm is August 3.
Elsewhere in the basin, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms in the central tropical Atlantic, where conditions may allow development throughout the week. Should development occur, the next named storm will be Debby.
7-day tropical outlook. This image highlights Major Hurricane Beryl, Tropical Depression Chris, and a potential area of development, indicated by an orange X. Source: NOAA/NHC.
Peril Advisory will continue to monitor Beryl. Additional reports will be released as warranted.
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